Please read the README file in this repository.

Other analyses

• Binder sandbox (takes a few minutes to load)
• Croatia-Nordics-And-Some
• Europe
• North_America
• Asia
• South_America
• Africa

Table of Contents

• Cross-country comparison over absolute dates
  • Confirmed
  • Dead
  • Daily Dead (7-Day Average)
  • Active
• Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days
  • Confirmed
  • Dead
  • Daily Dead (7-Day Average)
  • Active
• Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis
  • Croatia
  • Switzerland
  • Italy
  • US
  • United Kingdom
  • Sweden
  • Germany
• Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak
  • List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)
  • Serbia
  • Tunisia
  • Andorra
  • Japan

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

Croatia⮸

Population $4,105,267$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $2,249$ on 2020-06-10

Best fit exponential: \(567 \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(43.8\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,210.5}{1 + 10^{-0.057 (t - 37.6)}}\) (asimptote \(2,210.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $106$ on 2020-06-10

Best fit exponential: \(20.9 \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(31.4\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{104.1}{1 + 10^{-0.046 (t - 36.2)}}\) (asimptote \(104.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $13$ on 2020-06-10

Switzerland⮸

Population $8,654,622$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $31,011$ on 2020-06-10

Best fit exponential: \(9.86 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(51.3\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{30,332.0}{1 + 10^{-0.061 (t - 31.2)}}\) (asimptote \(30,332.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-05 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,936$ on 2020-06-10

Best fit exponential: \(458 \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(39.9\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,899.8}{1 + 10^{-0.055 (t - 37.1)}}\) (asimptote \(1,899.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $375$ on 2020-06-10

Italy⮸

Population $60,461,826$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $235,763$ on 2020-06-10

Best fit exponential: \(5.33 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(44.1\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{229,567.0}{1 + 10^{-0.040 (t - 42.6)}}\) (asimptote \(229,567.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $34,114$ on 2020-06-10

Best fit exponential: \(6.75 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(40.3\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{32,964.1}{1 + 10^{-0.039 (t - 44.8)}}\) (asimptote \(32,964.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $31,710$ on 2020-06-10

US⮸

Population $331,002,651$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $2,000,464$ on 2020-06-10

Best fit exponential: \(2.28 \times 10^{5} \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(28.5\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,966,691.1}{1 + 10^{-0.030 (t - 53.0)}}\) (asimptote \(1,966,691.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $112,924$ on 2020-06-10

Best fit exponential: \(1.4 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(27.9\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{109,921.9}{1 + 10^{-0.037 (t - 48.0)}}\) (asimptote \(109,921.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $1,354,036$ on 2020-06-10

United Kingdom⮸

Population $67,886,011$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $291,588$ on 2020-06-10

Best fit exponential: \(3.46 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(29.3\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{287,955.6}{1 + 10^{-0.036 (t - 52.6)}}\) (asimptote \(287,955.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $41,213$ on 2020-06-10

Best fit exponential: \(6.22 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(30.7\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{39,174.2}{1 + 10^{-0.042 (t - 43.7)}}\) (asimptote \(39,174.2\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $249,106$ on 2020-06-10

Sweden⮸

Population $10,099,265$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $46,814$ on 2020-06-10

Best fit exponential: \(3.35 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(26.2\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{50,002.3}{1 + 10^{-0.024 (t - 69.9)}}\) (asimptote \(50,002.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $4,795$ on 2020-06-10

Best fit exponential: \(593 \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(27.1\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{4,679.1}{1 + 10^{-0.036 (t - 46.9)}}\) (asimptote \(4,679.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $42,019$ on 2020-06-10

Germany⮸

Population $83,783,942$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $186,522$ on 2020-06-10

Best fit exponential: \(4.78 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(44.3\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{177,850.7}{1 + 10^{-0.051 (t - 35.4)}}\) (asimptote \(177,850.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $8,752$ on 2020-06-10

Best fit exponential: \(1.84 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(34.4\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{8,469.4}{1 + 10^{-0.048 (t - 35.9)}}\) (asimptote \(8,469.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $7,140$ on 2020-06-10

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)⮸

Croatia recovered 99%
Serbia recovered 94%
Tunisia recovered 93%
Andorra recovered 92%
Japan recovered 92%
Australia recovered 91%
Denmark recovered 86%
Chad recovered 83%
Uruguay recovered 79%
Turkey recovered 73%
Lithuania recovered 72%
Italy recovered 71%
San Marino recovered 68%
Georgia recovered 66%
Malaysia recovered 54%
Hungary recovered 45%
Romania recovered 42%
Singapore recovered 40%
Maldives recovered 40%
Kuwait recovered 35%
Sri Lanka recovered 22%
Iran recovered 17%
Kazakhstan recovered 15%
Djibouti recovered 13%
Canada recovered 7%
Tajikistan recovered 7%

Serbia⮸

Population $8,737,371$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $12,031$ on 2020-06-10

Best fit exponential: \(2.19 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(33.1\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{11,334.0}{1 + 10^{-0.050 (t - 39.3)}}\) (asimptote \(11,334.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $251$ on 2020-06-10

Best fit exponential: \(59.8 \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(34.8\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{246.5}{1 + 10^{-0.044 (t - 32.1)}}\) (asimptote \(246.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $432$ on 2020-06-10

Tunisia⮸

Population $11,818,619$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-13 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $1,087$ on 2020-06-10

Best fit exponential: \(384 \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(49.7\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,052.0}{1 + 10^{-0.056 (t - 24.6)}}\) (asimptote \(1,052.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $49$ on 2020-06-10

Best fit exponential: \(20 \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(52.2\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{46.7}{1 + 10^{-0.054 (t - 18.3)}}\) (asimptote \(46.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-13 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $55$ on 2020-06-10

Andorra⮸

Population $77,265$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-02 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $852$ on 2020-06-10

Best fit exponential: \(237 \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(47.6\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{773.2}{1 + 10^{-0.067 (t - 31.3)}}\) (asimptote \(773.2\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $51$ on 2020-06-10

Best fit exponential: \(19.3 \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(47.4\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{50.5}{1 + 10^{-0.049 (t - 21.2)}}\) (asimptote \(50.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-02 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $42$ on 2020-06-10

Japan⮸

Population $126,476,461$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $17,146$ on 2020-06-10

Best fit exponential: \(2.45 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(34.1\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{16,753.7}{1 + 10^{-0.053 (t - 53.4)}}\) (asimptote \(16,753.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $922$ on 2020-06-10

Best fit exponential: \(93.2 \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(25.3\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{960.1}{1 + 10^{-0.037 (t - 53.4)}}\) (asimptote \(960.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $1,007$ on 2020-06-10